This weekend, we’ve got a 14-fight card at Brazil. DraftKings has some decent competitions out there for this Fight Night card, and this can be uncommon for these free ones. The main tourney is the $8 entry and pays $20k to 1st. That’s the main GPP I will be chasing this week. As always, I will be in the 3-entry max and single entry GPPs as well. However, this week DraftKings includes two competitions for trips out to Vegas to see the McGregor vs Khabib battle. Hotel, flight, and fights all paid for. The floor chairs competition is a $33 entry and the non-floor seats competition is simply a $15 entrance. I will have to take a few shots at that as well. Also, DraftKings just released a competition for UFC 299 that is a $10 entry with a massive $100,000 to 1st place. That is unquestionably the biggest prize we’ve ever seen in DFS MMA, so let us build a bankroll this weekend so we can take some additional shots at that $100k. With that said, here are a few plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of the week — Livia Renata Souza ($9,600)
Livia Souza is your safest win on the card and I think she gets this battle finished early. That is where I’m starting my money LUs weekly. Only give me the -1100 favored who is being fed an easy win here, for my money games. I do like a lot of the top favorites on this card, I simply would be the most shocked if Souza lost. I believe she is fine in both formats, but she will probably be chalky in GPPs, therefore cash games are the best place to get your Souza investment this week. Take this win, and then find others and you should be useful in money games.
GPP drama of this week — Charles Oliveira ($9,400)
I’m a large Charles”Can Bronx” Oliveira enthusiast, and he has some of my own favorites in UFC history. I think we can see another amazing one here. This battle seems easy to call. Do Bronx will start looking for the early takedown and if he can get it then he probably receives a 1st round sub. If this happens he should lock up a strong 100 points and I am pretty confident in being the results of this struggle, so that is why he’s my GPP play of the week. He’s also my GPP drama of this week, and not my Money play of this week for a reason. If he can not get the takedown(s) early, then he’ll probably stop and get completed himself with strikes. I don’t like that risk of a reduced floor for my own cash LU, so I prefer Souza there. However, in GPPs I like saving the 200 and going down to Do Bronx.
Underdog play of the week — Eryk Anders ($7,600)
I would like Anders more if he wasn’t carrying this fight on short notice, and when it wasn’t in Brazil. But he can have a very clear route to success here and that is by knocking outside Santos who does not possess a great chin. Anders could also opt for takedowns in this fight and he could win with some hard GNP as well. At $7.6k he’ll almost surely wind up on the winning LU if he’s ready to get the KO. This is the main event, so he will have 5 rounds to work with. I do think this is a good matchup for Anders, but he has to be competitive and never hang out to the exterior. If he hangs out on the exterior too long Santos will eat him up with kisses and it could be a short night for Anders. I am going to pick him to get the win here as an underdog in Brazil and I think he has it completed in the first two rounds with a KO. This will easily pay off his $7.6k salary and it will win you a GPP if you’re able to get your other five spots right also.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($9,200)
Sam Alvey is always a fade for me. I wrote him up as my fade of the week on here, I was very wrong and he scored over 100 points. Then so be it, if that happens here. However, I refuse to rely on an early KO triumph to pay off a $9.2k salary from a guy who doesn’t throw many strikes. At $9.2k I want at least 92 points out of Alvey if I roll up him and the only real way get gets that’s with a 1st round KO win. That could happen here against a 42-year-old Lil Nog, but I am not willing to invest my money in it.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with investigation on each struggle, my private strategies & suggestions, and my selection prediction for every fight then it is possible to find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker if you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can go to this link below:
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