Hello informed sports investors, today I’m going to unveil an interesting hockey betting strategy that I call”The NHL Streak Breaker Play”. It basically answers the intuitive question I asked myself a while ago:
Considering the public’s tendency to overreact to recent results, should we bet on groups which are presently on a losing streak confronting a team riding a winning streak (from the NHL)?
Let us see if we could profit from this proposal!
1. Basic Exploration
To start with, you need to notice that the results presented in this article include a dataset containing information regarding all NHL games from the nine (9) seasons covering the 2007/2008 into 2015/2016 period.
Let us kick off this study with an extremely straightforward analysis: we’re betting $1 on every group coming off at least one loss playing against a team coming off at least one win. Here are the results:
Record = 2533-2767 (win percentage = 47.8%)
Gain = -$202.16 (ROI = Return On Investment = -3.8percent )
To place these numbers in perspective, just how much money would we have lost or won from using the contrary strategy (i.e. betting on teams coming off at least one win facing a team coming off at least one loss)? The answer is: -$181.43 (-3.4percent ). As you can see, the first suggested strategy isn’t doing any better than the opposite strategy. We aren’t off to a fantastic start, but please hang because sunlight is about to shine!
From now on, I will use chances with”reduced juice”. In my dataset, when two groups were evenly matched the juice was 20 pennies (for example -110 versus -110 in American structure, which is the equal of 1.91 lines in decimal format). That isn’t representative of the reality as you can obtain much better odds simply by playing sportsbooks like Pinnacle or 5Dimes. Also, in case you’ve got an account with numerous bookies you can get even better chances by shopping for the ideal line. Consequently, I’ve adjusted odds in my dataset so that we are currently becoming -105 lines (1.95 in chronological arrangement ) when the two teams are equally likely to win the match.
With decreased juice, the profit amounts above become -$100.95 (-1.9percent ) when betting the team on a losing streak versus -$89.98 (-1.7percent ) when betting the group on a winning series.
2. Length of the Winning and Losing Streaks
All right, let us now refine our analysis to see whether we can find a winning strategy. But I’d like to introduce a little bit of notation to simplify the writing for the rest of this report:
W = number of games from the streak L = number of matches from the losing streak Teams W teams coming at least win
Teams L = teams coming off one loss Let’s study the performance of the proposed strategy both as a function of”w” and”l”. Ideally, we’d like to view our winnings grow as both of these variables go up. In plain English, are individuals earning more money when backing a team on a big losing streak facing a group on a big winning streak?
Let’s start by focusing exclusively on the performance of this proposed strategy for a role of”w”, the Amount of consecutive wins by the group We’re gambling against, also known as”evaporating”
Read more: http://www.nemetvolgyiantikvarium.hu/2019/10/27/national-hockey-league-all-star-game/