Seven teams got defeated by double digits in Week 1 and we’re seeing then overcorrection of odds and inflated spreads because of the overreaction that is immediate. But within the last five seasons, the teams that got wrecked by 10 points or more in their opening match have covered the spread 63??percent of the time in Week 2.
Since the beginning of the 2014 season, there were 34 cases of teams losing from double-digit points in Week 1 and their album is currently 21-12-1 ATS for Week two. That record seemed so dubious that I had to double-check the outcome myself out of our stats man (shout-out to May!) .
See the table below that illustrates this trend and Possible angles you could take advantage of for Week two:
Since you may see, the ATS percentage doesn’t shift much based on the sample size of last year, the previous three seasons and also the past five seasons. This isn’t me saying to take out a second mortgage and place it around the Dolphins +19??spread vs the Patriots however there is some virtue to projecting a bounce-back from groups at Week 2 by these keeping games close or winning straight (52.9 percent over five years).
The seven teams which dropped in Week 1 by 10 points or more would be Jaguars, Steelers, Browns, the Dolphins, Falcons, Giants and Buccaneers.
We would not be an authority on odds and trends if we see how teams perform after crushing an opponent and didn’t at least look at the reverse side. Based on the previous five seasons, both teams which won by 10 points or more from Week 1 have only covered in 45.5 percent of their matches in Week 2.
View the table below for last five seasons, the last 3 seasons and 2018:
There’s a regression from those winners that is likely because opposing guards now have and they won’t be caught off guard, as evidenced in the table over.
It is also because of inflated spreads that are probably not an actual representation of how those groups are ATS. As an example, the seven teams that won by 10 points or more in Week 1 are the Titans, Chiefs, Ravens, Vikings, Cowboys, 49ers and Patriots.
To see the latest betting odds for Week 2, take a look at our NFL Odds Page.
Read more: f1radical.com